If you've been watching Marin County's numbers this year, you've probably seen the headline: prices are down. Over the three months ending in May 2026, the county's median sale price came in around $1.6 million, a drop of roughly 5.7% from the same period a year earlier. That's the kind of number that makes a buyer relax and a seller nervous. It's also the kind of number that describes almost nobody's actual experience of buying or selling in Marin right now.
Here's what the county-wide figure hides: Marin isn't cooling evenly. It's splitting. In one set of towns, inventory is genuinely loosening and buyers are gaining real leverage for the first time in years. In another set, homes are still scarce, still competitive, and still appreciating, even as the county-wide chart trends downward. If you're comparing towns right now, the median isn't just an imperfect guide. It's actively misleading, because it's averaging two markets that are moving in opposite directions.
The number that stopped matching its neighbors
Start with the pace of change, because that's where the split first shows up. Marin's year-over-year home price appreciation slowed sharply this summer, from 11% in June down to about 3% in July 2026. That alone wouldn't be strange in a market that's been cooling. What's strange is what happened next door. Over the same stretch, San Mateo County's appreciation strengthened from 8% to 10%, and Santa Clara County flipped from a 9% decline to slight growth. Marin moved the opposite direction from its neighbors at the exact moment they accelerated.
A county that decelerates while its neighbors speed up usually isn't experiencing a broad demand problem. It's experiencing a supply problem that's concentrated somewhere specific. And when you look at Marin town by town, that's exactly what's happening.
Two Marins, one median
Real estate forecasts for the county this year draw a fairly consistent line between two groups of towns.
On one side: Tiburon, Kentfield, and Mill Valley, where limited availability is expected to keep pushing appreciation higher even as the county average softens. These are towns where a seller who lists a genuinely well-kept home this year is still likely to see it move fast, because there's so little else on the market to compete with it.
On the other side: Novato, Corte Madera, and San Rafael, where inventory has actually expanded, giving buyers who want to upsize real room to negotiate for the first time in a while. If you've been priced out of Marin's core towns and assumed the whole county was equally tight, this is the part of the market you haven't been looking at.
| Where supply is still scarce | Where supply has opened up |
|---|---|
| Tiburon | Novato |
| Kentfield | Corte Madera |
| Mill Valley | San Rafael |
There's also a third category worth naming: towns like Ross, Kentfield, and Larkspur, which forecasts describe as offering walkability and stable pricing, making them attractive for downsizers who want to preserve value without chasing appreciation. That's a third temperature entirely, neither frozen nor thawing, just steady. A single county median can't hold three different temperatures at once, which is exactly the problem with reading it as one number.
Why some owners won't sell no matter what the county chart says
The mechanism behind this split isn't mysterious once you name it: mortgage rate lock-in, distributed unevenly.
A homeowner who refinanced or bought during the era of much lower mortgage rates faces a real cost to selling, even if their home has appreciated. Trading a legacy rate for something in the mid-6% range, which is roughly where mortgage rates are expected to hover through 2026, means a materially higher monthly payment on the next place, even if it's the same price or cheaper. Local market reporting has repeatedly flagged this exact behavior this year: many owners are choosing to stay put unless they have a compelling reason to move, which keeps exceptional homes scarce in the towns where people are least likely to want to leave.
That's precisely why the effect isn't uniform. In Tiburon, Kentfield, and Mill Valley, the kind of buyer who already owns there tends to be the kind of buyer who's in no hurry to trade a good rate for a lateral move. In Novato, Corte Madera, and San Rafael, more owners are motivated to sell regardless, whether that's retirement, a job change, or simply outgrowing the house, and that steady trickle of must-sell inventory is what's giving buyers there more room to negotiate.
None of this shows up in a county median. It only shows up when you ask, for a specific town, who's selling and why.
What this actually means if you're the one who has to move
If you're comparing Marin towns, the practical takeaway isn't "wait for prices to fall." County-wide, prices already look like they're falling, and that hasn't translated into an easy market everywhere. The takeaway is that the strategy has to match the town.
In the scarce towns, the data suggests precision beats patience. Throughout 2025, homes across Marin typically sold for 100 to 102% of list price, and sellers who priced within 2 to 3% of recent comparable sales were the ones who attracted multiple offers within the first two weeks. In a tight town like Tiburon or Mill Valley, that discipline matters even more, because there's little room for a buyer to talk a seller down when there's nothing else on the market to compare against.
In the loosening towns, buyers have leverage they didn't have a year or two ago. Expanded inventory in Novato, Corte Madera, and San Rafael means more room to negotiate on price, on repairs, and on timeline, particularly for buyers looking to upsize.
If you're a seller trying to decide whether now is the right time, the honest answer depends entirely on which of these two Marins your address sits in. A home in a scarce town can likely still command a strong number with the right preparation. A home in a town with rising inventory needs sharper pricing and a stronger presentation to stand out against more competition than sellers there have faced in years.
For a longer view of how Marin's median listing price has moved over time, FRED's Marin County housing data tracks the county figure monthly, including the June 2026 reading of $1,395,000. It's a useful baseline. Just remember it's an average of two markets, not a description of either one.
A few questions worth asking before you compare towns
If Marin's median price is down, is this a buyer's market? Not uniformly. Some towns behave like one, with more inventory and more negotiating room. Others are still tight enough that well-priced homes draw multiple offers within two weeks. The county number doesn't tell you which kind of town you're looking at.
Why would a homeowner refuse to sell even if their home has gained value? Because selling means giving up a lower mortgage rate for a new one closer to the mid-6% range, which can raise the monthly payment even on a same-priced home. That single fact is doing a lot of the work behind Marin's uneven inventory this year.
If a town like Kentfield shows up on both the "scarce" list and the "stable, good for downsizing" list, which is it? Both, and that's the point. Kentfield can have too little inventory for buyers chasing more space while still offering the kind of walkable, steady pricing that appeals to someone selling a bigger house for a smaller one. Scarcity and stability aren't opposites in a market this fragmented.
Every one of these towns is telling a slightly different story right now, and the right move depends on which story applies to the address you're actually considering. If you want to talk through what your specific target towns look like this month, not just the county average, Michelle Kennedy would be glad to walk through it with you. Let's talk about your home, schedule a personal consultation.
